Friday, December 9, 2016

"It will be Nana Akufo-Addo. It is statistically impossible for JM to win" - Joy News projects

Joy News has projected NPP presidential candidate Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo as the likely winner of the 2016 presidential elections.

It is almost statistically impossible for President John Mahama to obtain 50% plus one required to win the presidential ballot.

Out of an estimated 10million votes, the winner needs 5,272,633 votes to win.

NPP candidate Akufo-Addo has 4,213,710 and needs 1,117,663 votes to cross the mark.

The NDC candidate and incumbent John Mahama has 3,710,702 votes from 206 constituencies provisionally declared.

With 69 constituencies left, 21 of which are in the NPP stronghold of the Ashanti and Eastern regions, John Mahama is unlikely to garner 1,561,931 votes to overturn the result.

There are 69 constituencies to go with a registered voter population of 3,827,081

  1. At the current average turn-out of 68%, this translates into 2,652,483 votes
  2. The current Provisional valid votes cast is 7,988,676
  3. When added to the expected number of votes from the 69 constituencies, this comes to 10,545,267 votes
  4. Therefore, 50%+1 comes to 5,272,633
  5. At 206 constituencies, JM is at 3,710,702 votes
  6. For JM to reach 5.3m he needs 1,598,355 votes
  7. On average he is capturing 46% of the provisional valid votes.
  8. Assuming JM does 10% better than his current 46% he has done across the remaining 69 undeclared constituencies, he will achieve an additional 1,412,346 which is below 1,598,355 required to make 50%+1

NANA

  1. There are 69 constituencies to go with a registered voter population of 3,827,081
  2. At the current average turn-out of 68%, this translates into 2,652,483 votes
  3. The current Provisional valid votes cast is 7,988,676
  4. When added to the expected number of votes from the 69 constituencies, this comes to 10,545,267 votes
  5. Therefore, 50%+1 comes to 5,272,633
  6. At 206 constituencies, Nana is at 4,213,710 votes
  7. For Nana to reach 5.3m he needs 1,117,663 votes
  8. Assuming Nana does 10% lower than his current 52.17% he has done across the remaining 69 undeclared constituencies, he will achieve additional 1,210,716 which is 93,053 more than 50%+1

We therefore project it is almost statistically impossible for JM to achieve 50% + 1. Our projection is that Nana Akufo-Addo will win the 2016 presidential election.

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