Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Apple Inc’s stock prices drop ahead of iPhone event tomorrow. Good news for investors?

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Apple Inc. investors don’t appear to be as excited about what the technology giant will announce on Wednesday as sell-side analysts, or Chief Executive Tim Cook, suggest they should be.

If history is any guide, that could prove a blessing for Apple shares, at least for the very short term.

Apple’s stock AAPL, +1.69%  has declined in the month leading up to an iPhone announcement for the first time since the first iPhone was unveiled in January 2007, according to Walter Piecyk, analyst at BTIG Research.

In 2007, that skepticism led to a sharp rally on the day the iPhone was unveiled, that continued the day after.

The stock was up 2.2% in midday trade Tuesday, after shedding 3.5% last week. The stock dropped 6.2% in the month through Sept. 2, Piecyk said.

Apple’s stock performance surrounding iPhone announcements
Announcement date (month/year)Model announcedStock gain (loss) 1 month ahead of announcement (%)Stock gain (loss) on day of announcement (%)Stock gain (loss) day after announcement (%)Stock gain (loss) 1 month after announcement (%)
January 2007iPhone(3.2)8.34.8(2.6)
June 2008iPhone 3G1.2(2.2)2.2(6.1)
June 2009iPhone 3GS12.0(0.6)(0.8)(5.7)
June 2010iPhone 48.5(2.0)(0.6)1.1
October 2011iPhone 4S0.1(0.6)6.96.8
September 2012iPhone 56.31.42.0(4.7)
September 2013iPhone 5S11.4(2.3)(5.4)(3.3)
September 2014iPhone 6/6+3.8(0.4)3.12.7
September 2015iPhone 6S/6S+(6.2)*??????
Average5.00.21.5(1.5)
Average last 3 years7.2(0.4)(0.1)(1.7)
*Stock performance in the month through Sept. 2
Source: BTIG Research, Thomson One

There are a number of differences between now and 2007. Although Apple’s stock fell in the last month, it still outperformed the S&P 500 index, which dropped 7.4% in the period.

In the month leading up to the 2007 event, Apple’s stock lost 3.2% while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%.

Read more when is the best time to own Apple’s stock surrounding iPhone events.

FactSet
Apple’s stock has dropped, but not as much as the rest of the market

Another difference is that last month, CEO Tim Cook provided a rare and controversial update, by telling CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a private email that iPhone activations have accelerated in recent weeks.

And with Apple expected to unveil more than just an iPhone upgrade this time, analysts are mostly optimistic that the event could spark a bounce in the stock.

Analyst Chris Caso at Susquehanna Financial Group said the large base of iPhone users who haven’t upgraded yet leads him to believe that the stock’s “attractive valuation” provides a good risk-versus-reward scenario for investors.

He said his research into iPad production and demand came in “a little better than expected for the first time in many quarters.”

J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall said he was upbeat on the stock leading up to Wednesday’s event, but more because of the opportunities he sees with a new AppleTV and a larger iPad.

MarketWatch

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