Apple Inc. investors don’t appear to be as excited about what the technology giant will announce on Wednesday as sell-side analysts, or Chief Executive Tim Cook, suggest they should be.
If history is any guide, that could prove a blessing for Apple shares, at least for the very short term.
Apple’s stock AAPL, +1.69% has declined in the month leading up to an iPhone announcement for the first time since the first iPhone was unveiled in January 2007, according to Walter Piecyk, analyst at BTIG Research.
In 2007, that skepticism led to a sharp rally on the day the iPhone was unveiled, that continued the day after.
The stock was up 2.2% in midday trade Tuesday, after shedding 3.5% last week. The stock dropped 6.2% in the month through Sept. 2, Piecyk said.
| Apple’s stock performance surrounding iPhone announcements | |||||
| Announcement date (month/year) | Model announced | Stock gain (loss) 1 month ahead of announcement (%) | Stock gain (loss) on day of announcement (%) | Stock gain (loss) day after announcement (%) | Stock gain (loss) 1 month after announcement (%) |
| January 2007 | iPhone | (3.2) | 8.3 | 4.8 | (2.6) |
| June 2008 | iPhone 3G | 1.2 | (2.2) | 2.2 | (6.1) |
| June 2009 | iPhone 3GS | 12.0 | (0.6) | (0.8) | (5.7) |
| June 2010 | iPhone 4 | 8.5 | (2.0) | (0.6) | 1.1 |
| October 2011 | iPhone 4S | 0.1 | (0.6) | 6.9 | 6.8 |
| September 2012 | iPhone 5 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | (4.7) |
| September 2013 | iPhone 5S | 11.4 | (2.3) | (5.4) | (3.3) |
| September 2014 | iPhone 6/6+ | 3.8 | (0.4) | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| September 2015 | iPhone 6S/6S+ | (6.2)* | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| Average | 5.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | (1.5) | |
| Average last 3 years | 7.2 | (0.4) | (0.1) | (1.7) | |
| *Stock performance in the month through Sept. 2 | |||||
| Source: BTIG Research, Thomson One | |||||
There are a number of differences between now and 2007. Although Apple’s stock fell in the last month, it still outperformed the S&P 500 index, which dropped 7.4% in the period.
In the month leading up to the 2007 event, Apple’s stock lost 3.2% while the S&P 500 gained 0.2%.
Read more when is the best time to own Apple’s stock surrounding iPhone events.
FactSetAnother difference is that last month, CEO Tim Cook provided a rare and controversial update, by telling CNBC’s Jim Cramer in a private email that iPhone activations have accelerated in recent weeks.
And with Apple expected to unveil more than just an iPhone upgrade this time, analysts are mostly optimistic that the event could spark a bounce in the stock.
Analyst Chris Caso at Susquehanna Financial Group said the large base of iPhone users who haven’t upgraded yet leads him to believe that the stock’s “attractive valuation” provides a good risk-versus-reward scenario for investors.
He said his research into iPad production and demand came in “a little better than expected for the first time in many quarters.”
J.P. Morgan analyst Rod Hall said he was upbeat on the stock leading up to Wednesday’s event, but more because of the opportunities he sees with a new AppleTV and a larger iPad.
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